Preseason Rankings
Big 12
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
4 Kansas 95.2%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 6 13 - 5 +19.4      +11.0 3 +8.5 10 73.7 68 0.0 1 0.0 1
13 Texas Tech 82.0%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 11 - 7 +15.7      +6.2 33 +9.5 5 66.0 252 0.0 1 0.0 1
15 Baylor 76.4%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 9 11 - 7 +14.8      +8.6 14 +6.2 29 64.7 291 0.0 1 0.0 1
24 Texas 62.9%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 9 +12.7      +5.8 38 +6.8 24 63.3 320 0.0 1 0.0 1
35 Iowa St. 51.2%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 8 - 10 +11.4      +7.6 16 +3.8 75 69.6 153 0.0 1 0.0 1
38 Oklahoma 52.1%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 8 - 10 +11.2      +5.3 47 +5.9 34 72.3 90 0.0 1 0.0 1
46 West Virginia 44.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 8 - 10 +10.2      +6.7 27 +3.5 81 73.7 69 0.0 1 0.0 1
49 Oklahoma St. 43.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 10 +10.0      +5.6 45 +4.4 59 65.8 265 0.0 1 0.0 1
50 Kansas St. 40.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 8 - 10 +9.8      +1.6 128 +8.2 14 60.8 339 0.0 1 0.0 1
68 TCU 28.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 6 - 12 +8.0      +3.4 84 +4.6 55 71.3 110 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Kansas 2.3 48.0 20.4 11.8 7.5 4.8 3.2 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.3
Texas Tech 3.7 20.4 19.8 15.6 12.3 9.8 7.2 5.9 4.3 3.0 1.7
Baylor 4.0 16.6 17.6 15.5 12.7 10.5 8.6 6.9 5.2 4.1 2.3
Texas 5.0 9.2 12.0 13.0 12.6 11.7 11.1 9.9 8.8 6.9 4.9
Iowa St. 5.6 6.2 8.8 10.7 11.3 11.9 11.5 11.8 10.6 9.4 7.8
Oklahoma 5.7 6.0 8.5 9.7 11.2 12.2 12.0 11.5 10.8 9.8 8.3
West Virginia 6.1 4.2 6.9 8.5 10.1 10.7 11.7 12.3 12.5 12.5 10.8
Oklahoma St. 6.2 4.0 6.4 8.6 9.8 10.6 11.6 12.4 12.3 12.8 11.5
Kansas St. 6.3 3.8 6.2 7.8 9.5 10.6 11.5 12.9 12.9 12.6 12.3
TCU 7.2 1.8 3.8 4.9 6.6 8.4 10.3 12.2 14.0 16.7 21.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kansas 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.0 2.9 4.3 6.6 8.3 10.4 12.7 13.4 13.6 12.0 8.3 3.6
Texas Tech 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.6 3.7 5.5 7.1 9.5 10.5 11.2 11.9 11.3 9.4 7.2 4.5 2.3 0.8
Baylor 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.1 4.9 6.4 8.2 9.8 11.4 11.5 11.2 9.9 8.1 6.0 3.6 1.6 0.4
Texas 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.9 6.0 8.0 9.3 10.7 11.2 10.8 10.1 8.9 6.7 5.1 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.1
Iowa St. 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.7 5.7 7.5 9.6 11.0 11.1 10.7 10.2 9.0 6.9 5.1 3.2 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1
Oklahoma 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.0 4.0 5.9 8.2 9.3 10.6 11.7 11.2 9.9 8.0 6.7 4.9 3.2 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1
West Virginia 8 - 10 0.3 1.5 3.0 5.0 7.7 9.7 10.4 11.4 11.0 10.3 8.9 7.3 5.4 3.8 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
Oklahoma St. 8 - 10 0.4 1.3 3.3 5.4 7.6 9.8 10.6 11.7 10.8 9.9 8.7 7.4 5.2 3.3 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Kansas St. 8 - 10 0.4 1.6 3.4 5.8 7.7 9.8 11.5 11.5 11.1 10.0 8.5 6.5 5.1 3.2 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
TCU 6 - 12 1.1 3.5 6.3 9.1 10.7 11.8 11.9 11.3 9.7 7.7 6.0 4.2 3.0 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kansas 48.0% 37.3 9.0 1.4 0.3 0.0
Texas Tech 20.4% 13.8 5.3 1.1 0.2 0.0
Baylor 16.6% 10.9 4.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas 9.2% 5.8 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Iowa St. 6.2% 3.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma 6.0% 3.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Virginia 4.2% 2.3 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 4.0% 2.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas St. 3.8% 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
TCU 1.8% 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kansas 95.2% 34.9% 60.4% 1   34.7 21.3 11.7 8.3 6.3 4.4 3.2 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.8 92.7%
Texas Tech 82.0% 16.8% 65.2% 3   10.3 11.9 11.4 9.6 9.1 7.8 6.5 5.5 3.9 3.0 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.0 78.4%
Baylor 76.4% 13.6% 62.9% 4   8.1 9.3 9.8 8.9 8.4 7.5 7.1 5.9 4.6 3.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 23.6 72.7%
Texas 62.9% 8.6% 54.3% 5   3.9 5.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.6 7.0 6.1 4.8 3.8 2.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.1 59.4%
Iowa St. 51.2% 5.9% 45.3% 7   1.9 3.2 5.0 4.8 5.7 6.3 6.3 5.8 4.6 3.8 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 48.8 48.1%
Oklahoma 52.1% 5.5% 46.6% 7   2.2 3.4 4.9 5.2 6.2 6.0 6.2 5.5 4.9 3.7 3.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 47.9 49.3%
West Virginia 44.8% 4.4% 40.4% 1.4 2.6 3.8 4.0 4.7 5.3 5.4 5.2 4.4 3.9 3.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 55.2 42.3%
Oklahoma St. 43.0% 4.2% 38.7% 1.4 2.4 3.8 3.9 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.2 4.4 3.3 2.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.0 40.4%
Kansas St. 40.9% 4.1% 36.8% 1.1 2.0 2.9 3.3 4.1 4.6 5.2 5.4 4.6 3.7 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 59.1 38.3%
TCU 28.4% 2.0% 26.4% 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.0 2.6 0.8 0.0 71.6 27.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kansas 95.2% 0.4% 95.1% 84.7% 61.0% 39.9% 24.3% 14.0% 7.9%
Texas Tech 82.0% 1.9% 81.1% 63.3% 37.9% 20.5% 10.5% 5.0% 2.5%
Baylor 76.4% 2.0% 75.6% 57.0% 32.2% 16.9% 8.4% 4.1% 1.9%
Texas 62.9% 2.3% 61.8% 42.5% 21.5% 9.9% 4.4% 2.0% 0.9%
Iowa St. 51.2% 2.4% 50.0% 32.9% 15.0% 6.6% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4%
Oklahoma 52.1% 2.3% 51.0% 32.8% 15.1% 6.3% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4%
West Virginia 44.8% 2.5% 43.6% 27.3% 11.8% 5.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%
Oklahoma St. 43.0% 2.0% 41.9% 26.0% 11.3% 4.8% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3%
Kansas St. 40.9% 2.6% 39.6% 24.2% 10.1% 4.3% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2%
TCU 28.4% 2.1% 27.4% 15.5% 6.0% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.8 0.1 1.2 10.4 28.3 35.6 19.3 4.7 0.4 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 5.7 0.1 1.8 12.1 29.6 34.2 17.6 4.1 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 4.1 0.0 1.0 7.3 23.2 34.0 23.6 9.1 1.6 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 96.0% 2.2 4.0 21.2 36.8 26.8 9.5 1.5 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 76.9% 1.2 23.1 44.5 26.0 5.9 0.6 0.0
Final Four 50.3% 0.6 49.7 41.6 8.2 0.4 0.0
Final Game 28.3% 0.3 71.7 26.9 1.4
Champion 15.0% 0.1 85.0 15.0